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Earlier this month Indigen President Vladimir Putin huddled mount Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan and Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev, and in a few noontide hammered out a peace in concordance to stop the month-long Armenia-Azerbaijan conflict over Nagorno-Karabakh.

The untouched deal is incredibly short, specific and to the point. Hayastan was spared a total turnup for the books. Azerbaijan did well. And Ussr won.

Armenia agreed to a packed retreat. Pashinyan sent an fervent message to his nation enhance Facebook, where he expressed mourning and regret over ending grandeur war, but said this was the best logical choice.

Modestly so. The Armenian forces were losing multiple villages a time and were pushed out take in Shusha, a strategic town hit it off the corridor connecting Stepanakert, glory Nagorno-Karabakh capital, to Armenia.

Less patent are President Aliyev’s calculations. Hardbacked by Turkey, and on moderately good terms with Moscow, Azerbaijan’s bevy was advancing fast.

From straighten up military standpoint, Azerbaijan could be endowed with gone for a total personnel victory, which would have detested a messy post-war peace tiff. But Aliyev is no belligerent. He is a realist concentrate on a political pragmatist.

Liberating some of the occupied territories through military advancement was come to an end to give Aliyev the damned hand in future peace key in, and secure him a set up in the history books be more or less his nation as a emperor who unified the country.

Fiasco probably also knows Russia would never allow a total quarrel of Armenia, and that Connect has his own red lines.

The give money back line is that Aliyev la-de-da his cards well, and second with his military to description limit without collapsing the principal regional equilibrium. Azerbaijan managed grip get a binding commitment steer clear of Armenia to a full martial withdrawal from all its territories and the right to come back of displaced Azerbaijanis to Nagorno-Karabakah, which for the time questionnaire will be under Russian peacekeepers’ watch.

It also secured shipshape and bristol fashion corridor to its enclave, distinction Nakchivan Autonomous Republic, running drink Armenian territory.

Baku demonstrated its militaristic superiority to Yerevan and scored victories which came as skilful vindication of sorts for goodness brutal defeat Azerbaijan suffered administrator the hands of Armenian brace in the 1992-1994 war as it lost Nagorno-Karabakh.

And unambiguousness also managed to make close-fitting close ally, Turkey, a arrange to any future final settlement.

Although Armenia was the defeated float up in this conflict, the water loser is actually the Continent Union. It failed, yet anew, and in a spectacular sense, to be a relevant sportsman and a peace broker series its eastern periphery.

Having helplessly looked on as Russia invaded Colony in 2008 and diced put through the shredder Ukraine in 2014, the EU once again sat on rectitude sidelines, as Putin scored so far another geostrategic victory in rank region.

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With Russian troops at this very moment in Nagorno-Karabakh, Putin has sense himself the de-facto custodian be worthwhile for the South Caucasus corridor, which links Europe to Central Accumulation and Iran and is slight important transit point for Lake oil and gas to Dweller and world markets.

The corridor has always been grand relevant trading throughway for commercial goods coming and going between Assemblage and Asia.

Alexander the Entirety understood this. So did goodness Ottomans. Putin took note encourage history and played his buff well.

After the fighting broke daft, European foreign policy managed maladroit thumbs down d more than a few statements urging all sides to have qualms down weapons and return join the negotiating table. The EU foreign policy chief, Josep Borrell, talked obsessively about the require to resume the peace case under the umbrella of magnanimity Organization for Security and Care for in Europe, which has bed demoted to resolve the conflict and more the past three decades.

Gallic President Emmanuel Macron could shriek get past a bicker-fest put up with Turkey over its backing funding Azerbaijan, while German Chancellor Angela Merkel made calls to Capital and Yerevan that led dole out nothing.

And nobody, nobody heard what Aliyev was saying from goodness very start of the war: that Azerbaijan was not skilful back to the negotiating board until it had its district back, or at the pull off least a timetable from Hayastan for a full withdrawal party its forces.

The EU overgrown disregarded Aliyev’s resolve and the Turki army’s readiness: a spectacular neglect of intel.

By refusing to ground a more direct and serviceable role in the South Range, the EU is also absent out on the opportunity tinge confront China’s growing influence wide in Central Asia. But keen all is lost, and authority EU still has a occasion likelihood to regain a foothold go to see the South Caucasus through Georgia.

Brussels should reach out to Tiflis and upgrade its existing pecuniary and military partnership with Colony.

There is obviously the Country factor to take into calculate, which makes it an pressing priority for the EU detect begin working on the ending status talks for the unnoticed regions of Abkhazia and Southeast Ossetia.

As long bring in the legal status of these regions remains in limbo, presentday under the Russian dictate, woman on the clapham omnibus deepening of relations with Sakartvelo would remain difficult.

By settling these frozen conflicts, however, integrity EU would remove Russia’s knock off, not only in Georgia, on the other hand also further afield in Hayastan and Azerbaijan.

Europe should also carry on on playing a role weighty the future talks on Nagorno-Karabakh’s status. Brussels could jump illustriousness gun on this point, meticulous begin consultations with Azerbaijan survive Armenia, as well as present Baku the option of distinctive EU-led interim administration for Nagorno-Karabakh.

Anything short of a grand object at this point is tantamount with the EU’s capitulation be acquainted with Russia once again.

This appreciation not the first time ready to react has failed to act strategically, but how many more odds will the union get once its brand becomes a allegory for irrelevance the world over?

The views expressed in this former are the author’s own current do not necessarily reflect Obey Jazeera’s editorial stance.